"No shit, Sherlock!" = "You are stupid because what you said is very obvious."

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Example:

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John:     “I think maybe Paula is pregnant.”

Mary:    "No shit, Sherlock! Of course she's pregnant!

                    Look at her stomach!”

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Notes:

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1.   This expression references Sherlock Holmes, the great fictional detective

known for his keen observations, thereby mocking the observer.

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2.   This expression is effective partly due to its use of alliteration with the

“sh” in “shit” and the “sh” in “Sherlock.”

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3.   "No shit" is a related expression with the same meaning.

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4.   Media Reference #1: Levi Stubbs's character of "Audrey II" uses this expression

to mock Rick Moranis's character of "Seymour Krelborn" in the film Little Shop of Horrors:

Seymour:  "Every household in America? Thousands of you eating... that's what you

                         had in mind all along, isn't it?!"

Audrey II:   "No shit, Sherlock."

(At 1 hour, 20 minutes and 18 seconds into the film. Originally released December 19th, 1986.)

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5.   Media Reference #2: Mel Gibson's character of "Driver" uses this expression in the film Get the Gringo to express his frustration to Peter Gerety's character of "Embassy Guy":

Embassy Guy: "Seems to me someone is trying to bury you in here."

Driver:                 "No shit, Sherlock!"

(Originally released June 22, 2012.)

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6.   Media Reference #3: Jennifer Carpenter's character of "Debra Morgan" uses this expression in a conversation with her brother, "Dexter Morgan," as played by Michael  C. Hall, in season 7, episode 11 of the television series Dexter, "Do You See

What I See?," to express her frustration:

Dexter:  "I think there's another explanation for what happened. You took

                    more of those pills than you think you did. You've been under a 

                    lot of stress, Deb."

Debra:   "No shit, Sherlock." 

(At 34 minutes and 28 seconds into the episode. Originally broadcast December 9th, 2012.)

 

7.   Media Reference #4: Gaten Matarazzo's character of "Dustin Henderson" uses this expression in season 3, episode 6 of the television series Stranger Things, "E Pluribus Unum," to express his frustration to a friend, "Erica Sinclair," as played by Priah Ferguson:  

Erica:     "Um, you need help with that?"

Dustin: "No."

Erica:     "Well, I mean, it's taking a while, so..."

Dustin:   "Yeah, no shit, Sherlock!"

(At 15 minutes and 26 seconds into the episode. Originally broadcast July 4th, 2019.)